The Texas Water Development Board's 2027 State Water Plan projects that the City of Amarillo will need 46,830 acre-feet of water a year in 2030 and 56,866 in 2080. The water it can count on from its existing sources in a repeat of the worst drought on record falls over the same years, from 42,732 to 32,187 acre-feet. The difference, which the plan calls a need, grows from 4,098 to 24,679 acre-feet a year. The plan's recommended strategies for Amarillo add 33,536 acre-feet by 2080, which covers the need in every decade.
One acre-foot is 325,851 gallons. Figures in gallons are marked "our conversion".
Projected demand, 2030
46,830
acre-feet a year · about 41.8 million gallons a day, our conversion
Existing supply in drought, 2030
42,732
acre-feet a year from current sources
Need before new projects, 2080
24,679
acre-feet a year · 43% of projected demand, our calculation
Lake Meredith, Oct 15, 2026
44.6%
of conservation capacity · 223,036 of 500,000 acre-feet
Hollywood Road wastewater, Aug 2026
4.38 MGD
12-month average flow · permit allows 12 MGD
Demand and supply, 2030–2080
Acre-feet a year, summed over the three areas the plan splits Amarillo into (Potter County in two river basins, and Randall County). "Existing supply" is defined in state rules as the "maximum amount of water that is physically and legally accessible from existing sources for immediate use by a WUG under a repeat drought of record conditions" (31 TAC § 357.10). These are planning projections, not measurements.
Projected demand
Existing supply (drought)
Existing supply + recommended strategies
Source: Texas Water Development Board, 2027 State Water Plan data (2026 regional water plans).
Line chart: Amarillo's projected water demand rises from 46,830 acre-feet a year in 2030 to 56,866 in 2080; existing drought supply falls from 42,732 to 32,187; with the recommended strategies, supply reaches 65,723.
x
Projected demand
Existing supply (drought)
Existing supply + recommended strategies
2030
46,830
42,732
47,144
2040
49,513
39,980
56,306
2050
51,716
37,777
59,295
2060
53,441
34,557
61,501
2070
55,161
33,354
63,617
2080
56,866
32,187
65,723
Year
Projected demand
Drought supply
Need
2030
46,830
42,732
4,098
2040
49,513
39,980
9,533
2050
51,716
37,777
13,939
2060
53,441
34,557
18,884
2070
55,161
33,354
21,807
2080
56,866
32,187
24,679
Year
Strategies
Unmet need
Population
2030
4,412
0
212,036
2040
16,326
0
224,901
2050
21,518
0
234,909
2060
26,944
0
242,745
2070
30,263
0
250,556
2080
33,536
0
258,303
Acre-feet a year; population is people.
Acre-feet a year
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
Projected demand
46,830
49,513
51,716
53,441
55,161
56,866
Existing supply (drought)
42,732
39,980
37,777
34,557
33,354
32,187
Need before new projects
4,098
9,533
13,939
18,884
21,807
24,679
Recommended strategies
4,412
16,326
21,518
26,944
30,263
33,536
Unmet need after strategies
0
0
0
0
0
0
Population served (projected)
212,036
224,901
234,909
242,745
250,556
258,303
Population is the plan's projection for the City's water utility, which can differ from the population inside city limits.
Where the water comes from
Existing drought supply by source, acre-feet a year. "Via CRMWA" is water the City buys from the Canadian River Municipal Water Authority, which runs Lake Meredith and the Roberts County well field for its member cities (CRMWA II storyline). In 2030, 61% of Amarillo's existing supply comes through CRMWA and 39% from the City's own wells (our calculation).
Source
Supplied by
2030
2080
Change
Ogallala Aquifer, Roberts Countyvia CRMWA
via CRMWA
22,151
16,449
−26%
Ogallala Aquifer, Carson CountyCity of Amarillo wells
City of Amarillo wells
13,288
12,294
−7%
Lake Meredithvia CRMWA
via CRMWA
3,954
1,530
−61%
Ogallala Aquifer, Potter CountyCity of Amarillo wells
City of Amarillo wells
2,150
1,239
−42%
Ogallala Aquifer, Randall CountyCity of Amarillo wells
City of Amarillo wells
601
182
−70%
Dockum Aquifer, Potter CountyCity of Amarillo wells
City of Amarillo wells
507
491
−3%
Ogallala and Edwards-Trinity (High Plains) aquifers, Deaf Smith CountyCity of Amarillo wells
City of Amarillo wells
79
0
−100%
Dockum Aquifer, Carson CountyCity of Amarillo wells
City of Amarillo wells
2
2
+0%
Total
42,732
32,187
−25%
The plan's recommended strategies
Water management strategies the regional plan recommends for Amarillo, with the supply each adds (or saves, for conservation), acre-feet a year. Sorted by 2080 supply.
Strategy
Sponsor
2030
2050
2080
Amarillo ASR
Aquifer storage and recovery · City of Amarillo
City of Amarillo
0
9,287
9,276
Expand Capacity CRMWA 2
Groundwater wells and other · CRMWA
CRMWA
0
2,507
6,511
Develop Roberts County Well Field (Ogallala Aquifer)
Groundwater wells and other · City of Amarillo
City of Amarillo
0
0
4,929
Replace Well Capacity
Groundwater wells and other · CRMWA
CRMWA
0
346
2,694
Water Audit And Leak Repair
Municipal conservation · City of Amarillo
City of Amarillo
2,031
2,243
2,466
Desalination of Lake Meredith Water
Other strategies · CRMWA
CRMWA
0
1,079
2,357
Develop Potter/Carson County Well Field (Ogallala Aquifer)
Groundwater wells and other · City of Amarillo
City of Amarillo
0
3,367
2,287
Advanced Metering Infrastructure
Municipal conservation · City of Amarillo
City of Amarillo
1,437
1,591
1,750
Municipal Conservation
Municipal conservation · City of Amarillo
City of Amarillo
944
1,056
1,157
Brush Control
Other strategies · CRMWA
CRMWA
0
42
109
Infrastructure projects behind those strategies
Capital cost as listed in the plan, for the whole project. CRMWA projects serve CRMWA's other member cities as well, so their cost is not Amarillo's share. Projects sponsored by the City of Amarillo alone total $1.01B (our calculation).
Project
Online by
Sponsor
Capital cost
Expansion of Roberts County Well Field (Ogallala Aquifer) - CRMWA2
Online by 2030 · CRMWA · New conventional well; Transmission pipeline; Pump station
2030
CRMWA
$767.8M
Water Audit and Leak Repair - Amarillo
Online by 2030 · City of Amarillo · Audit; Distribution system water loss mitigation
2030
City of Amarillo
$171.9M
Advanced Metering Infrastructure - Amarillo
Online by 2030 · City of Amarillo · Data gathering and monitoring technology
2030
City of Amarillo
$36.5M
Desalination of Lake Meredith Water - CRMWA
Online by 2040 · CRMWA · New desalination WTP; Pump station; Transmission pipeline; Storage tank/balancing reservoir
2040
CRMWA
$196.2M
Direct Potable Reuse - Amarillo
Online by 2040 · City of Amarillo · New ASR or AR well; Transmission pipeline; Pump station; New advanced WTP
2040
City of Amarillo
$112.1M
Develop Potter/Carson County Well Field Phase IIA (Ogallala Aquifer) - Amarillo
Online by 2040 · City of Amarillo · New conventional well; Transmission pipeline; Pump station
2040
City of Amarillo
$65.2M
Replace Capacity of Roberts County Well Field (Ogallala Aquifer) - CRMWA
Online by 2040 · CRMWA · New conventional well
2040
CRMWA
$35.6M
Aquifer Storage and Recovery - Amarillo
Online by 2040 · City of Amarillo · New ASR or AR well
2040
City of Amarillo
$29.2M
Develop Potter/Carson County Well Field Phase 11B (Ogallala Aquifer) - Amarillo
Online by 2050 · City of Amarillo · New conventional well; Transmission pipeline; Pump station
2050
City of Amarillo
$65.2M
Develop Roberts County Well Field (Ogallala Aquifer) - Amarillo
Online by 2070 · City of Amarillo · New conventional well; Transmission pipeline
2070
City of Amarillo
$526.3M
Lake Meredith
Percent full measures water stored above the dead pool (the level below which water can't be drawn) against the lake's conservation capacity of 500,000 acre-feet. Yearly averages of daily readings; there are no readings from 1989 to 1994, and 1986 and 2026 are partial years. One daily reading (October 2, 1988) more than 20 points away from the days on either side is left out as a recording error.
On October 15, 2026 the lake was 44.6% full (223,036 acre-feet). The highest daily reading since 1986 was 79.7% on August 19, 1999. It read 0% on 1,107 days between May 25, 2011 and June 12, 2014. The plan counts on 3,954 acre-feet a year of Amarillo's 2030 drought supply coming from the lake.
Source: Texas Water Development Board, Water Data for Texas. Recent data are provisional.
Line chart: Lake Meredith average percent full by year, 1986 to 2026, with a gap from 1989 to 1994; lowest averages 2012 and 2013.
x
Average percent full
1986
46.2%
1987
55.2%
1988
57.7%
1995
57.3%
1996
60.3%
1997
70.9%
1998
66%
1999
70%
2000
67.8%
2001
55.3%
2002
36.9%
2003
26%
2004
21.3%
2005
25.9%
2006
16.5%
2007
13.7%
2008
9.4%
2009
9.3%
2010
4%
2011
0.2%
2012
0%
2013
0%
2014
2.3%
2015
14.1%
2016
25.3%
2017
28.5%
2018
38.8%
2019
40.2%
2020
39.5%
2021
36.3%
2022
32.6%
2023
39.3%
2024
42.1%
2025
44.6%
2026
44.4%
Yearly averages since 2015
Year
Average
Low
High
2015
14.1%
5%
25.7%
2016
25.3%
23%
27.1%
2017
28.5%
23%
40.7%
2018
38.8%
36%
40.8%
2019
40.2%
38.1%
42.3%
2020
39.5%
35.7%
42.3%
2021
36.3%
34.6%
38.8%
2022
32.6%
30.6%
34.6%
2023
39.3%
29.6%
48%
2024
42.1%
38.8%
44.5%
2025
44.6%
40.6%
48.3%
2026 (partial)
44.4%
40.4%
47%
Wastewater: Hollywood Road plant
Flow the City reports to the EPA each month under federal discharge permit TX0025810, as a 12-month average in million gallons a day (MGD). The permit limits that average to 12 MGD. This covers the Hollywood Road plant, the City wastewater plant with a federal discharge permit in EPA's data (wastewater storyline).
The 12-month average for the period ending Aug 2026 was 4.38 MGD, 36% of the permitted 12 MGD (our calculation). The highest reported since Jan 2009 was 8.35 MGD, for the period ending Nov 2010.
Source: U.S. EPA, ECHO discharge monitoring reports for permit TX0025810.
Line chart: Hollywood Road wastewater plant 12-month average flow, Jan 2009 to Aug 2026, between 3.2 and 8.4 MGD, against a permit limit of 12 MGD.
